Strong El Nino update: Early Winter Outlook
El Nino is classified by the warming of the Pacific Ocean waters west of South America, south of Hawaii and east of Australia
Updated: 1:35 PM CDT Sep 26, 2023
There's certainly been *** lot of talk lately about *** developing strong El Nino. As *** matter of fact, the latest El Nino outlook puts the sea surface temperatures at about 1.5 degrees warmer than normal out in the in region of the Pacific Ocean, which would put us on track for *** strong El Nino. So I want to break down the seven years that we have had *** strong El Nino and what it has meant for our weather. And Oklahoma again, we've only had seven strong El Ninos since 1940. So let's jump into what all of those uh El Nino winters look like both from *** temperature standpoint, from *** rain outlook and *** snow outlook. So first let's go all the way back to winter of 1941 here. This right here, you know, much of Oklahoma saw really normal temperatures with the exception of southwestern Oklahoma that was milder than normal and out across the panhandle where they were colder than normal from rain standpoint, it was dry in eastern Oklahoma, central and western Oklahoma, we were wetter than normal and from *** snow standpoint, central western Oklahoma in the Panhandle, we saw more snow than we typically see. Winter. 1958 this was the second documented, uh strong El Nino that we had central eastern Oklahoma normal temperatures. Western Oklahoma, we were *** bit milder than normal. It was also *** very dry winter for us. We didn't get much rain that winter of 1958 but we did get more snow than we typically see for central northern and southern Oklahoma. Then let's go all the way to winter. 1973. This particular winter, it was very cold, colder than normal across the entire state. It was also wetter than normal for the main body of the state. But the Panhandle saw drier than normal conditions here when it comes to snow. Central western Oklahoma saw more snow than we typically see that winter of 1973. Winter, 1983 the departure from normal, we were milder than normal. We were also much wetter than normal. That particular winter of 1983 and when it comes to snowfall, central southern western Oklahoma and the Panhandle saw more snow. Then we typically see winter 1998 central Eastern Oklahoma milder than normal weather. Western Oklahoma near normal temperatures. It was very wet that winter when we had this uh strong El Nino ongoing back in 1998. And when it comes to snow, we saw quite *** bit of snow out across the Panhandle, but not much snow across the main body of the state here. Winter 2010. That was *** very cold winter for us. I think *** lot of us also remember, uh that winter 2009 going into 2010 being the Christmas Eve blizzard rain fall. Northern Oklahoma didn't see that much rain that winter, but OKC, south and southwest and out across the Panhandle, we did see more rain than we typically see during the winter. And obviously that, that Christmas Eve blizzard really kind of, you know, packed, uh packed on the snow totals that winter, that winter was very, very snowy. And then the last one that we have here winter of 2016, this was the last strong El Nino that we had in place. It was *** very mild winter for us, rainfall, Western Oklahoma drier than normal. Oklahoma City, southern eastern Oklahoma, we were wetter than normal and there really wasn't *** whole lot of snow, that particular winter main body of the state, not much snow panhandle saw more snow. So what can we say about what *** strong El Nino means for Oklahoma during the winter months? Because that's usually when the impacts are most pronounced. Well from *** temperature standpoint, the cold winter is not locked in. As *** matter of fact, history really favors really normal to almost *** mild winter for us. Our cold fronts, they do come in but they typically don't last all that long. So there's been *** lot of talk about this winter being really, really cold and really, really snowy. But when you look at all, the last couple of the last seven strong El Ninos that we have had documented, they haven't been that cold for Oklahoma. Now, from *** rain standpoint again, we've had seven strong El Ninos since 1946 of them led to *** wet winter and one was, it was only one that was *** dry winter. So it does appear that at least history would favor this winter being wetter than normal. And from *** snow standpoint, history does favor *** snowy winter for us. We've had five snowy winters and then we had only two winters with very low snow with central and western Oklahoma being the favorite spots for above average snowfall. Yes, you can have *** mild winter and also *** snowy winter as well. So, something to keep in mind, we will continue watch it closely. But again, you're gonna be hearing *** lot about strong El Nino and what impacts we can expect. Again, the cold winter is not locked in, but it does seem that the odds are in our favor for *** snowy winter and *** wetter than normal winter, we'll watch it closely.
Strong El Nino update: Early Winter Outlook
El Nino is classified by the warming of the Pacific Ocean waters west of South America, south of Hawaii and east of Australia
Updated: 1:35 PM CDT Sep 26, 2023
There have been only seven documented strong El Nino winters. >> KOCO weather page | Get KOCO on the goBut what is a strong El Nino? El Nino is classified by the warming of the Pacific Ocean waters west of South America, south of Hawaii and east of Australia.So, how does something so far away impact our weather? The warming of ocean water in that region can displace the jetstream and bring a change in our weather pattern all the way into the U.S. Get the latest news stories of interest by clicking here.There has been a lot of talk about this winter being wet and cold, but what does history say about how our winter should go during a strong El Nino? Let's look at the facts!Temperature OutlookA cold winter is not locked in during a strong El Nino. In the previous seven El Nino years, the winter saw two seasons with normal temperatures, two that were colder than normal and three that were milder than normal. Knowing that, it's easy to see why a cold winter is now locked in. Only two of the last seven strong El Nino were indeed colder than normal. Rain OutlookThe rain outlook does look more certain for us. In the last seven strong El Nino winters, we had six winters that were wetter than normal and only one that was drier than normal. There is an easy correlation to be made that this winter will likely be wetter than normal. Snow OutlookThe snow outlook does look favorable for a snowy season, as five of the last seven strong El Nino winters saw more snow than normal. Also, it's important to note that the effects of El Nino are most pronounced during the winter months.Top Headlines Authorities believe suspected Oklahoma State Fair shooter didn't go through metal detector Strong El Nino Update: Early Winter Outlook Offers pour in to help couple after Airbnb canceled over veteran's service dog Single dad of 6 receives restored car after biking to work for six months Powerball jackpot climbs to est. $835 million after no grand prize winners in Monday night's drawing
There have been only seven documented strong El Nino winters.
>> KOCO weather page | Get KOCO on the go
But what is a strong El Nino? El Nino is classified by the warming of the Pacific Ocean waters west of South America, south of Hawaii and east of Australia.
So, how does something so far away impact our weather? The warming of ocean water in that region can displace the jetstream and bring a change in our weather pattern all the way into the U.S.
Get the latest news stories of interest by clicking here.
There has been a lot of talk about this winter being wet and cold, but what does history say about how our winter should go during a strong El Nino?
Let's look at the facts!
Temperature Outlook
A cold winter is not locked in during a strong El Nino. In the previous seven El Nino years, the winter saw two seasons with normal temperatures, two that were colder than normal and three that were milder than normal. Knowing that, it's easy to see why a cold winter is now locked in. Only two of the last seven strong El Nino were indeed colder than normal.
Rain Outlook
The rain outlook does look more certain for us. In the last seven strong El Nino winters, we had six winters that were wetter than normal and only one that was drier than normal. There is an easy correlation to be made that this winter will likely be wetter than normal.
Snow Outlook
The snow outlook does look favorable for a snowy season, as five of the last seven strong El Nino winters saw more snow than normal.
Also, it's important to note that the effects of El Nino are most pronounced during the winter months.
Top Headlines