INTO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS THE ECONOMY AFTER THAT, VOTERS SAY THEY CARE ABOUT LEADERSHIP AND THEN IMMIGRATION. THAT’S ACCORDING TO GALLUP POLLING FROM JULY. BUT MY NEXT GUEST SAYS SIMPLY SAYING IMMIGRATION TO A POLLSTER DOESN’T TELL YOU WHERE VOTERS ACTUALLY STAND ON THE ISSUE. IT’S A COMPLICATED ONE. AND HIS RESEARCH SHOWS THAT VOTERS FEELINGS ABOUT IT ARE EVOLVING. ERNESTO CASTANEDA IS THE DIRECTOR OF THE IMMIGRATION LAB AT AMERICAN UNIVERSITY. IT’S SO NICE TO HAVE YOU. THANK YOU FOR JOINING ME. THANK YOU. SOLEDAD, LET’S BEGIN MAYBE WITH A HISTORY 101 ABOUT THE DEBATE OVER IMMIGRATION IN THE UNITED STATES. THERE WAS A LULL IN IMMIGRATION AFTER WORLD WAR TWO, AND THEN THERE WAS A BIG CHANGE TO THE LAW IN 1965 WITH THE OPENING TO FAMILY REUNIFICATION AND THE IDEA THAT PEOPLE IN CONGRESS HAD IS THAT IN THAT WAY, MORE EUROPEANS WILL KEEP COMING TO THE UNITED STATES. WHAT HAPPENED IN REALITY IS THAT THAT OPENED THE DOORS FOR THE ASIAN FAMILIES AND THE LATINO FAMILIES WHO WERE ESTABLISHED IN THE US TO BRING THEIR FAMILY MEMBERS LEGALLY AT THE SAME TIME, WE START SEEING THE EFFECTS OF THE END OF THE GUEST WORKER PROGRAM DEMANDED BY AGRICULTURE SECTORS AND OTHER EMPLOYERS THAT ENDED. AND THEN THAT BECOMES AN INFORMAL LABOR MARKET OF WHAT BECOMES WHAT WE CALL NOW UNDOCUMENTED MIGRATION. AND THEN THE THIRD ELEMENT THAT CHANGES IS THAT IN THE 80S, WITH A LOT OF CIVIL WARS IN CENTRAL AMERICA, YOU SEE A LOT OF PEOPLE COMING LOOKING FOR ASYLUM THAT WERE NOT GIVEN THE STATUS OF REFUGEES BECAUSE THE US HAD FRIENDLY RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE REGIME IN CENTRAL AMERICA. WHEN POLLSTERS TALK ABOUT IMMIGRATION, YOU KNOW, OFTEN IT’S VERY GENERIC. WHAT HAVE YOU FOUND IN YOUR RESEARCH ABOUT HOW AMERICANS POLE AROUND IMMIGRATION? SO FOR SOME PEOPLE, YES, WHEN THEY THINK ABOUT IMMIGRATION, THEY THINK ABOUT BORDER SECURITY. THAT IS A PHRASE THAT WE HEAR OFTEN FROM WASHINGTON, FROM POLITICIANS, ESPECIALLY SINCE NINE OVER 11. FOR OTHER PEOPLE IS UNDOCUMENTED WORKERS, FOR OTHER PEOPLE, MAYBE THE PEOPLE SLEEPING TEMPORARILY IN THE STREETS OR IN HOTELS AND SHELTERS AND FOR OTHERS, IT’S JUST HOW WHEN CAN WE PASS A HUMANE LAW TO HELP PEOPLE ESCAPING HORRIBLE SITUATIONS IN HAITI, VENEZUELA, UKRAINE AND AFGHANISTAN? HOW DOES IMMIGRATION PERFORM? IF YOU WILL, AS AN ISSUE WHEN YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT A TIGHT CONGRESSIONAL RACE, SENATE RACE, PRESIDENTIAL RACE, WE HAVE DONE RESEARCH SINCE THE 2018 MIDTERM ELECTIONS AND SINCE THEN WE HAVE LOOKED AT CONGRESSIONAL RACES OR GUBERNATORIAL RACES THAT ARE CLOSED. SO IN THESE SWING STATES, IN THESE PURPLE STATES, WE SEE THAT IMMIGRATION IS NOT A WINNING THING. KRIS KOBACH WAS ONE OF THE HARDEST ADVISERS FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP ON IMMIGRATION. HE RAN FOR GOVERNOR AND HE LOST. AND LIKE THAT, WE HAVE COUNTED DOZENS OF CASES EVERY ELECTION WHERE BEING PRO-IMMIGRANT FOR THE DEMOCRATS HAVEN’T HASN’T AFFECTED THEM. MANY GOT ELECTED. SAME THING. MANY THEY TEND TO BE REPUBLICANS WHO ARE ANTI-IMMIGRANT. THEY HAVE LOST MANY ELECTIONS. SO IT’S NOT THAT WINNING ISSUE THAT PEOPLE THINK. AND IT’S ALSO WHEN IT’S WHEN IT’S USEFUL ELECTORALLY IS TEMPORARY. IT’S PROBABLY ONE OF THE ISSUES THAT BROUGHT TRUMP TO THE FORE, MADE HIM POPULAR IN 2016. TALKING AGAINST MEXICANS IN PARTICULAR, THE BORDER WALL. HE WAS IN OFFICE. HE DIDN’T CHANGE THE DYNAMICS VERY MUCH IN 2020. HE WAS TRYING TO SCARE PEOPLE ABOUT THE CARAVANS. IT DIDN’T WORK. AND NOW HE’S TALKING ABOUT PEOPLE COMING FROM ASYLUMS, WHICH IS NOT TRUE. HE’S PROBABLY REFERRING MORE TO PEOPLE COMING FROM CUBA AND VENEZUELA TODAY. IT’S A QUESTION MARK WHETHER. THAT’S GOING TO FUNCTION FOR HIM ELECTORALLY. I DON’T THINK SO. WHAT DO YOU THINK ARE THE CHANCES THAT, AS WE HEAD INTO 2025, IN FACT, WE’RE GOING TO SEE PROGRESS ON THIS ISSUE. IT’S A PRIORITY FOR EMPLOYERS THAT CANNOT FIND ENOUGH WORKERS. THERE’S AROUND 1.5 OPENING JOBS FOR EVERY ONE WORKER AVAILABLE. SO EVEN IF WE HIRE EVERYBODY THAT DOESN’T HAVE A JOB TODAY, THEY WILL STILL BE MORE JOBS TO BE FILLED. THE WHITE HOUSE HAS VERY STRONG OPINIONS ON MIGRATION AND FROM ONE SIDE, TRUMP DEPORTING A LOT OF PEOPLE AND DOUBLING DOWN ON THE POLICIES THEY DID LAST TIME AROUND. AND THE KAMALA ADMINISTRATION WITH WALLS WILL BE TRYING TO BRING THESE PEOPLE INTO THE AMERICAN FOLD IN A LEGAL FASHION. SO THE QUESTION REALLY LIES IN THE SENATE. WHAT PARTY HAS HOW MANY VOTES? AND THEN BECAUSE OF THE FILIBUSTER, THEY WILL NEED TO BE A BIPARTISAN AGREEMENT. ERNESTA CASTANEDA, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR TALKING WITH ME. DIRECTOR OF