Tight race for control of Congress could be decided by just a handful of campaigns

INTO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS THE ECONOMY AFTER THAT, VOTERS SAY THEY CARE ABOUT LEADERSHIP AND THEN IMMIGRATION. THAT’S ACCORDING TO GALLUP POLLING FROM JULY. BUT MY NEXT GUEST SAYS SIMPLY SAYING IMMIGRATION TO A POLLSTER DOESN’T TELL YOU WHERE VOTERS ACTUALLY STAND ON THE ISSUE. IT’S A COMPLICATED ONE. AND HIS RESEARCH SHOWS THAT VOTERS FEELINGS ABOUT IT ARE EVOLVING. ERNESTO CASTANEDA IS THE DIRECTOR OF THE IMMIGRATION LAB AT AMERICAN UNIVERSITY. IT’S SO NICE TO HAVE YOU. THANK YOU FOR JOINING ME. THANK YOU. SOLEDAD, LET’S BEGIN MAYBE WITH A HISTORY 101 ABOUT THE DEBATE OVER IMMIGRATION IN THE UNITED STATES. THERE WAS A LULL IN IMMIGRATION AFTER WORLD WAR TWO, AND THEN THERE WAS A BIG CHANGE TO THE LAW IN 1965 WITH THE OPENING TO FAMILY REUNIFICATION AND THE IDEA THAT PEOPLE IN CONGRESS HAD IS THAT IN THAT WAY, MORE EUROPEANS WILL KEEP COMING TO THE UNITED STATES. WHAT HAPPENED IN REALITY IS THAT THAT OPENED THE DOORS FOR THE ASIAN FAMILIES AND THE LATINO FAMILIES WHO WERE ESTABLISHED IN THE US TO BRING THEIR FAMILY MEMBERS LEGALLY AT THE SAME TIME, WE START SEEING THE EFFECTS OF THE END OF THE GUEST WORKER PROGRAM DEMANDED BY AGRICULTURE SECTORS AND OTHER EMPLOYERS THAT ENDED. AND THEN THAT BECOMES AN INFORMAL LABOR MARKET OF WHAT BECOMES WHAT WE CALL NOW UNDOCUMENTED MIGRATION. AND THEN THE THIRD ELEMENT THAT CHANGES IS THAT IN THE 80S, WITH A LOT OF CIVIL WARS IN CENTRAL AMERICA, YOU SEE A LOT OF PEOPLE COMING LOOKING FOR ASYLUM THAT WERE NOT GIVEN THE STATUS OF REFUGEES BECAUSE THE US HAD FRIENDLY RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE REGIME IN CENTRAL AMERICA. WHEN POLLSTERS TALK ABOUT IMMIGRATION, YOU KNOW, OFTEN IT’S VERY GENERIC. WHAT HAVE YOU FOUND IN YOUR RESEARCH ABOUT HOW AMERICANS POLE AROUND IMMIGRATION? SO FOR SOME PEOPLE, YES, WHEN THEY THINK ABOUT IMMIGRATION, THEY THINK ABOUT BORDER SECURITY. THAT IS A PHRASE THAT WE HEAR OFTEN FROM WASHINGTON, FROM POLITICIANS, ESPECIALLY SINCE NINE OVER 11. FOR OTHER PEOPLE IS UNDOCUMENTED WORKERS, FOR OTHER PEOPLE, MAYBE THE PEOPLE SLEEPING TEMPORARILY IN THE STREETS OR IN HOTELS AND SHELTERS AND FOR OTHERS, IT’S JUST HOW WHEN CAN WE PASS A HUMANE LAW TO HELP PEOPLE ESCAPING HORRIBLE SITUATIONS IN HAITI, VENEZUELA, UKRAINE AND AFGHANISTAN? HOW DOES IMMIGRATION PERFORM? IF YOU WILL, AS AN ISSUE WHEN YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT A TIGHT CONGRESSIONAL RACE, SENATE RACE, PRESIDENTIAL RACE, WE HAVE DONE RESEARCH SINCE THE 2018 MIDTERM ELECTIONS AND SINCE THEN WE HAVE LOOKED AT CONGRESSIONAL RACES OR GUBERNATORIAL RACES THAT ARE CLOSED. SO IN THESE SWING STATES, IN THESE PURPLE STATES, WE SEE THAT IMMIGRATION IS NOT A WINNING THING. KRIS KOBACH WAS ONE OF THE HARDEST ADVISERS FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP ON IMMIGRATION. HE RAN FOR GOVERNOR AND HE LOST. AND LIKE THAT, WE HAVE COUNTED DOZENS OF CASES EVERY ELECTION WHERE BEING PRO-IMMIGRANT FOR THE DEMOCRATS HAVEN’T HASN’T AFFECTED THEM. MANY GOT ELECTED. SAME THING. MANY THEY TEND TO BE REPUBLICANS WHO ARE ANTI-IMMIGRANT. THEY HAVE LOST MANY ELECTIONS. SO IT’S NOT THAT WINNING ISSUE THAT PEOPLE THINK. AND IT’S ALSO WHEN IT’S WHEN IT’S USEFUL ELECTORALLY IS TEMPORARY. IT’S PROBABLY ONE OF THE ISSUES THAT BROUGHT TRUMP TO THE FORE, MADE HIM POPULAR IN 2016. TALKING AGAINST MEXICANS IN PARTICULAR, THE BORDER WALL. HE WAS IN OFFICE. HE DIDN’T CHANGE THE DYNAMICS VERY MUCH IN 2020. HE WAS TRYING TO SCARE PEOPLE ABOUT THE CARAVANS. IT DIDN’T WORK. AND NOW HE’S TALKING ABOUT PEOPLE COMING FROM ASYLUMS, WHICH IS NOT TRUE. HE’S PROBABLY REFERRING MORE TO PEOPLE COMING FROM CUBA AND VENEZUELA TODAY. IT’S A QUESTION MARK WHETHER. THAT’S GOING TO FUNCTION FOR HIM ELECTORALLY. I DON’T THINK SO. WHAT DO YOU THINK ARE THE CHANCES THAT, AS WE HEAD INTO 2025, IN FACT, WE’RE GOING TO SEE PROGRESS ON THIS ISSUE. IT’S A PRIORITY FOR EMPLOYERS THAT CANNOT FIND ENOUGH WORKERS. THERE’S AROUND 1.5 OPENING JOBS FOR EVERY ONE WORKER AVAILABLE. SO EVEN IF WE HIRE EVERYBODY THAT DOESN’T HAVE A JOB TODAY, THEY WILL STILL BE MORE JOBS TO BE FILLED. THE WHITE HOUSE HAS VERY STRONG OPINIONS ON MIGRATION AND FROM ONE SIDE, TRUMP DEPORTING A LOT OF PEOPLE AND DOUBLING DOWN ON THE POLICIES THEY DID LAST TIME AROUND. AND THE KAMALA ADMINISTRATION WITH WALLS WILL BE TRYING TO BRING THESE PEOPLE INTO THE AMERICAN FOLD IN A LEGAL FASHION. SO THE QUESTION REALLY LIES IN THE SENATE. WHAT PARTY HAS HOW MANY VOTES? AND THEN BECAUSE OF THE FILIBUSTER, THEY WILL NEED TO BE A BIPARTISAN AGREEMENT. ERNESTA CASTANEDA, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR TALKING WITH ME. DIRECTOR OF

The race for control of Congress is as close as ever, with barely two dozen House seats and a handful in the Senate likely to determine the majority this November and whether a single party sweeps to power with the White House.Lawmakers are returning to Washington for a three-week legislative sprint, away from the campaign trail where races have become "trench warfare" and a seat-by-seat slog. Many of highest-profile races are being waged in Montana, New York, California and beyond, far from the presidential battleground states contested by Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris.Upended by the summer shake-up that replaced President Joe Biden with Harris atop the Democratic ticket, the down-ballot campaigns enter this fall stretch at a virtual toss-up, a high-wire uncertainty where every single seat won or lost could make the difference in party control.What's changed is not so much the fundamentals of the individual races, but which side has the energy and enthusiasm to make sure their voters actually show up and cast their ballots, strategists said.Money, volunteers and voter enthusiasm are flowing to the Democratic campaigns since Harris replaced Biden. That's challenging Republicans who entered the election cycle favored for gains and buoyed by Trump's comeback bid, despite the criminal charges hanging over his potential return to the White House.Trump and Republicans are working feverishly to regain the momentum they enjoyed from the GOP convention in Milwaukee and from the Supreme Court decision giving former presidents broad immunity from prosecution, including for some acts related to his effort to overturn the 2020 election and for the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.Trump's campaign staff held a private conference call Friday with House Republicans, assuring them that the movement is shifting to Trump as they game out strategies ahead, according to another Republican who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed conversation."There's a lot of handwringing going on and a lot of anxiousness about where this election is headed," said Montana Sen. Steve Daines, a Trump ally who heads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the campaign arm.Speaking at the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas, Daines played up GOP Senate candidates as warriors and predicted that enthusiasm from rural voters who will "crawl over broken glass" to vote for Trump will help Republicans such as Sam Brown, who is challenging Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev.Still, the fundraising gap Republicans now find themselves facing with Democrats is a problem, say GOP strategists on both ends of the Capitol, leaving them without money to keep pace with advertising and on-the-ground organizing."We have a lot of work to do," Daines said.Long gone are the days of supermajorities in the House and Senate, replaced by a new era of razor-thin margins that leave little margin for errors in political campaigns, or actual governing. Democrats are almost certain to see their narrow majority slip to at least a 50-50 split with Republicans with the retirement of independent Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia. His departure is making way for Republican Gov. Jim Justice to handily win that seat.Trump is wildly popular in Montana, where Senate Republicans see their best chance to go on offense as they challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. But Tester is also a popular figure in the Big Sky state, where a whopping $238 million-plus is being spent on ads.Video below: Waukesha mayor condemns ad in U.S. Senate race featuring Waukesha Christmas parade attackSenate Republicans had the advantage this this cycle, with few incumbents to protect, allowing them to challenge Democrats with handpicked, often wealthy recruits in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin. Democrats have only more recently gone on offense in long-shot races against Republican Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida.But incumbents often bring longevity and name recognition to the race, making them tough to topple, as is the case in Pennsylvania, where Democrat Sen. Bob Casey is being challenged by Republican Dave McCormick, and in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown is running a playful cookie-eating television ad as he faces Republican Bernie Moreno.For the open seat in Democratic-heavy Maryland, the state's popular former Republican governor, Larry Hogan, who was courted to run by Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, is in a tough matchup against county executive Angela Alsobrooks. She would make history as one of the few Black women elected to the Senate.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has predicted Democrats will keep their majority. In a Senate split, majority control goes to the party in the White House because the vice president can cast deciding votes."Democrats have never been in a stronger position to defend our Senate majority," said Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, who leads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. In the House, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has crisscrossed the country this summer in some 20 states as what he calls an "ambassador of hope" in his party's quest to save its razor-thin majority. The Republicans are trying to protect 18 Republicans in Democratic-heavy congressional districts where Biden had won, particularly in coastal New York and California, and going on offense to challenge Democrats elsewhere.But House Democrats, whose campaign chairwoman, Rep. Suzan DelBene of Washington state was among those who spoke privately to Biden about the potential down-ballot drag as he weighed his decision to exit the race, are benefiting from the Harris momentum.Democrats are working to protect their own most embattled House lawmakers, a handful of pragmatic legislators including Marcy Kaptur in Ohio, Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania and a trio of younger lawmakers who lead the centrist Blue Dog coalition — Mary Peltola of Alaska, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington state and Jared Golden of Maine.Video below: Republican candidates in New Hampshire's CD-2 debate immigration, inflationEach faces a notable Republican: Nick Begich, from an Alaskan political family; Washington's Trump-endorsed Joe Kent; and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault in Maine.Republicans have gone to great lengths to diversify their own ranks of what just a few years ago, remained a party of mostly white men, and few women. The 2018 election, for example, left about a about a dozen Republican women and no Black Republicans in the House.GOP Rep. Richard Hudson, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said House Republicans are "right where we expected to be," acknowledging it's a "trench warfare" fight. Because many of the House races are being contested so far from the presidential battlegrounds, candidates are being forced to stand up their own operations along with the congressional committees to turn out the vote. House Democrats are seeing an organic flow of volunteers mobilized, having knocked on more than 377,000 doors and made more than 845,000 phone calls in August, greater than in the previous three months combined, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said.House Republicans have propped up dozens of "Battle Stations" for voter outreach and get-out-the-vote efforts, particularly areas without Trump's campaign infrastructure, and also report crowds of enthusiastic voters at events as Johnson traveled the country in the contested regions. Fundraising remains imbalanced as Democrats are outpacing Republicans with Harris atop the ticket, and Republicans are sounding alarms to their own donors to get off the sidelines."We are on track to flip the Senate," said Jason Thielman, executive director of the NRSC. But he said the Democrats' "massive cash advantage is a real problem. The biggest thing preventing Senate Republicans from having a great night in November is the cash crunch."Both the DSCC and DSCC posted record online fundraising in the days after Harris' campaign announcement and her team sent $25 million to down-ballot races, including $10 million each this past week to the House and Senate committees.DCCC Spokesperson Viet Shelton said grassroots enthusiasm to elect a Democratic House majority is "at an all-time high." He said voters want to elect "get-stuff-done incumbents" not a "rag-tag group" of Republican candidates aligned with Trump.___Associated Press writer Tom Beaumont in Las Vegas contributed to this report.

WASHINGTON —

Lawmakers are returning to Washington for a three-week legislative sprint, away from the campaign trail where races have become "trench warfare" and a seat-by-seat slog. Many of highest-profile races are being waged in Montana, New York, California and beyond, far from the presidential battleground states contested by Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris.

Upended by the summer shake-up that replaced President Joe Biden with Harris atop the Democratic ticket, the down-ballot campaigns enter this fall stretch at a virtual toss-up, a high-wire uncertainty where every single seat won or lost could make the difference in party control.

What's changed is not so much the fundamentals of the individual races, but which side has the energy and enthusiasm to make sure their voters actually show up and cast their ballots, strategists said.

Money, volunteers and voter enthusiasm are flowing to the Democratic campaigns since Harris replaced Biden. That's challenging Republicans who entered the election cycle favored for gains and buoyed by Trump's comeback bid, despite the criminal charges hanging over his potential return to the White House.

Trump and Republicans are working feverishly to regain the momentum they enjoyed from the GOP convention in Milwaukee and from the Supreme Court decision giving former presidents broad immunity from prosecution, including for some acts related to his effort to overturn the 2020 election and for the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.

Trump's campaign staff held a private conference call Friday with House Republicans, assuring them that the movement is shifting to Trump as they game out strategies ahead, according to another Republican who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed conversation.

"There's a lot of handwringing going on and a lot of anxiousness about where this election is headed," said Montana Sen. Steve Daines, a Trump ally who heads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the campaign arm.

Speaking at the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas, Daines played up GOP Senate candidates as warriors and predicted that enthusiasm from rural voters who will "crawl over broken glass" to vote for Trump will help Republicans such as Sam Brown, who is challenging Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev.

Still, the fundraising gap Republicans now find themselves facing with Democrats is a problem, say GOP strategists on both ends of the Capitol, leaving them without money to keep pace with advertising and on-the-ground organizing.

"We have a lot of work to do," Daines said.

Long gone are the days of supermajorities in the House and Senate, replaced by a new era of razor-thin margins that leave little margin for errors in political campaigns, or actual governing.

Democrats are almost certain to see their narrow majority slip to at least a 50-50 split with Republicans with the retirement of independent Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia. His departure is making way for Republican Gov. Jim Justice to handily win that seat.

Trump is wildly popular in Montana, where Senate Republicans see their best chance to go on offense as they challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. But Tester is also a popular figure in the Big Sky state, where a whopping $238 million-plus is being spent on ads.

Video below: Waukesha mayor condemns ad in U.S. Senate race featuring Waukesha Christmas parade attack

Senate Republicans had the advantage this this cycle, with few incumbents to protect, allowing them to challenge Democrats with handpicked, often wealthy recruits in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin. Democrats have only more recently gone on offense in long-shot races against Republican Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida.

But incumbents often bring longevity and name recognition to the race, making them tough to topple, as is the case in Pennsylvania, where Democrat Sen. Bob Casey is being challenged by Republican Dave McCormick, and in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown is running a playful cookie-eating television ad as he faces Republican Bernie Moreno.

For the open seat in Democratic-heavy Maryland, the state's popular former Republican governor, Larry Hogan, who was courted to run by Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, is in a tough matchup against county executive Angela Alsobrooks. She would make history as one of the few Black women elected to the Senate.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has predicted Democrats will keep their majority. In a Senate split, majority control goes to the party in the White House because the vice president can cast deciding votes.

"Democrats have never been in a stronger position to defend our Senate majority," said Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, who leads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

In the House, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has crisscrossed the country this summer in some 20 states as what he calls an "ambassador of hope" in his party's quest to save its razor-thin majority.

The Republicans are trying to protect 18 Republicans in Democratic-heavy congressional districts where Biden had won, particularly in coastal New York and California, and going on offense to challenge Democrats elsewhere.

But House Democrats, whose campaign chairwoman, Rep. Suzan DelBene of Washington state was among those who spoke privately to Biden about the potential down-ballot drag as he weighed his decision to exit the race, are benefiting from the Harris momentum.

Democrats are working to protect their own most embattled House lawmakers, a handful of pragmatic legislators including Marcy Kaptur in Ohio, Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania and a trio of younger lawmakers who lead the centrist Blue Dog coalition — Mary Peltola of Alaska, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington state and Jared Golden of Maine.

Video below: Republican candidates in New Hampshire's CD-2 debate immigration, inflation

Each faces a notable Republican: Nick Begich, from an Alaskan political family; Washington's Trump-endorsed Joe Kent; and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault in Maine.

Republicans have gone to great lengths to diversify their own ranks of what just a few years ago, remained a party of mostly white men, and few women. The 2018 election, for example, left about a about a dozen Republican women and no Black Republicans in the House.

GOP Rep. Richard Hudson, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said House Republicans are "right where we expected to be," acknowledging it's a "trench warfare" fight.

Because many of the House races are being contested so far from the presidential battlegrounds, candidates are being forced to stand up their own operations along with the congressional committees to turn out the vote.

House Democrats are seeing an organic flow of volunteers mobilized, having knocked on more than 377,000 doors and made more than 845,000 phone calls in August, greater than in the previous three months combined, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said.

House Republicans have propped up dozens of "Battle Stations" for voter outreach and get-out-the-vote efforts, particularly areas without Trump's campaign infrastructure, and also report crowds of enthusiastic voters at events as Johnson traveled the country in the contested regions.

Fundraising remains imbalanced as Democrats are outpacing Republicans with Harris atop the ticket, and Republicans are sounding alarms to their own donors to get off the sidelines.

"We are on track to flip the Senate," said Jason Thielman, executive director of the NRSC. But he said the Democrats' "massive cash advantage is a real problem. The biggest thing preventing Senate Republicans from having a great night in November is the cash crunch."

Both the DSCC and DSCC posted record online fundraising in the days after Harris' campaign announcement and her team sent $25 million to down-ballot races, including $10 million each this past week to the House and Senate committees.

DCCC Spokesperson Viet Shelton said grassroots enthusiasm to elect a Democratic House majority is "at an all-time high." He said voters want to elect "get-stuff-done incumbents" not a "rag-tag group" of Republican candidates aligned with Trump.

___

Associated Press writer Tom Beaumont in Las Vegas contributed to this report.

Tight race for control of Congress could be decided by just a handful of campaigns

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